In the small universe that is health insurance, 2017 may turn out to be pretty nice for the men and women who predict how much insurers have to pay out in claims.

“Actuaries across the country will be able to sleep better at night for 2017,” John Bertko, chief actuary for Covered California, said.

Bertko says after three years actuaries finally have the information to more accurately forecast what they need to make a profit. Better data is just one signal that premiums on the Obamacare exchanges will likely go up more than this year. More sick people than expected and exploding drug prices are two other important signs.

Virginia, one of the earliest states to publicly report proposed increases, has posted that carriers are looking for hikes from 9 to 37 percent. The Kaiser Family Foundation’s Larry Levitt said another factor is that companies are losing the key federal subsidy called ‘reinsurance’ that helps cover costs for the most expensive consumers.

“The reinsurance money has allowed premiums this year to be about 5% lower than they would have been if that subsidy didn’t exist,” he said. 

Higher premiums will certainly mean more tax dollars to help cover the cost of subsidizing coverage.

But MIT economist Jonathan Gruber said individual consumers might not get whacked as much as you’d think.

Gruber says four out of ten people are shopping for the best deals.

“What’s exciting is people are paying attention,” he said

“Competition is working. We took a market that was disorganized, people had no idea what they were buying, or they were stuck with that product for many years. And they are taking it seriously.”

So many people switching plans puts pressure on the insurers.

Bertko said insurers – at least in the most competitive places – are fighting for market share.

“Once a year we play musical chairs to get down to the lowest or second lowest cost plan in the region. And the plans are all incredibly aware of that,” he said.

Bertko said the stakes can be high.

If an insurer ends up with one of the most competitively priced plans, they stand to attract some of those people who this year will likely be out there shopping due to the premium spikes.

That, said Bertko, is what you call an opportunity.

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More than 120 people who care for Alzheimer’s patients held a conference in Wilsonville Wednesday. They learned the first thing families should do when a loved one gets dementia.

Lawyers and caregivers alike said putting someone’s financial details in order is paramount — even before finding a care facility or deciding which family member will look after someone.

Susie Sample said her mother moved in with a stranger before the family fully understood how vulnerable she was to financial exploitation.

“It totally took away a huge part of her planning," Sample said.

"She had a home that went into foreclosure. She lost that. Other IRAs. She lost a huge chunk of money," Sample added. "We would have had her in a much better care situation had we had those assets.”

State-funded ‘Oregon Care Partners’ organized the Wednesday's conference.

Sixty-two thousand Oregonians currently live with Alzheimer’s — a number that’s expected to increase 35 percent over the next decade as Baby Boomers age.

Getting health insurance if you work for a nonprofit can be tough. To save money, employees often end up buying high-deductible plans, sometimes spending thousands of dollars in co-pays and fees.

But the Nonprofit Association of Oregon is teaming up with health broker Nonstop to allow small to midsize nonprofits to partially self-insure.

Jody Schreffler of Nonstop, said it works by keeping employees in plans, even if they have a high-deductible, while also having them pay into a reserve account. That money is then used to pay co-pays and fees.

Nonstop also offers healthcare benefits and administration for nonprofits with more than 50 employees on healthcare.

“We risk mitigate for these large non-profits. Drop the premiums, we administer the plan. And after six months, look at that reserve account. And if they have not exceeded what they’ve set aside, we return two thirds of that back to the nonprofit,” said Schreffler.

Jim White, the executive director of the Nonprofit Association of Oregon said the new system, "offers an immediate solution to containing premium costs."

Oregon regulators said Thursday air and soil samples continue to show low health risks for Portland residents. But the level of arsenic in some areas is elevated.

A new test for arsenic around Uroboros Glass in North Portland showed levels several times higher than the state guideline.

But David Farrer with the Oregon Health Authority said people needn’t be concerned.

“When there’s an exceedance of a screening level found, that does not automatically mean that there’s a public health risk," Farrer said. "But it does mean that we need to do additional analysis, and found that the risk was low.”

Farrer said the test seemed high because Oregon’s guidelines are too conservative. It assumes 100 percent of the arsenic in a contaminated soil will be absorbed by the body. Farrer said some studies show absorption rates can be as low as 10 percent.

Concerns about toxic air started last month after high levels of heavy metals were found around glass manufacturers in the city.

Since then, Uroboros has signed an agreement not to use the heavy metals without a filter. Bullseye Glass remains in negotiations.