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Avalere's Analysis of CBO Coverage Estimates

February 4, 2014

Today, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released updated estimates of how many people it expects to enroll in coverage through exchanges in 2014. While the estimates represent a reduction in expected coverage levels in 2014, CBO’s predictions remain in sync with previous estimates of the impact of the law over time. Specifically, CBO:


·         Reduced its projected exchange enrollment from 7 million to 6 million in 2014.

·         Reduced projected enrollment in Medicaid and CHIP from 9 million to 8 million in 2014.

·         Increased the number of people who will be uninsured in 2014 by 1 million.

·         Maintained its estimates of the net impact of the ACA on employment-based coverage.


The much-anticipated estimates also present a few additional interesting points to note:


·         CBO predicts 5 out of 6 million exchange enrollees (or about 83%) in 2014 will receive a subsidy.

·         CBO lowered estimated average premiums by about 15 percent based on an analysis of plans offered through exchanges.

·         CBO also updates its estimates of the budgetary impact of the much-discussed “risk corridor” program, finding that risk corridor payments will yield $8 billion in savings for the federal government.


CBO estimates do not reflect all available data, including recent exchange enrollment figures released after December 2013. The report cites the January 13 HHS enrollment report, which includes data through December 28 of 2013.  



Submitted by Mary Saunders on Thu, 02/06/2014 - 11:47 Permalink

I want this data by state. Which states are doing better and why? I don't know if it is available. Maybe the states themselves have this information. If we are to get to better practice, we need to know the mechanics, even if states are different in culture and environment, and some outcomes will not be replicated exactly somewhere else.