Avalere Exchange Enrollment Update: Nationwide Enrollment Tracking toward 5.4M by the End of March; Enrollment in Federally-Run Exchanges Is Accelerating

New Avalere analysis finds that exchange enrollment is on track to reach 5.4 million by the end of March when open enrollment is set to end. That number falls short of current Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that six million people will enroll in exchanges in 2014. 

“The Administration is conducting aggressive outreach in March in an effort to boost enrollment.  However, success of exchanges in 2014 will depend less on the size of the market and more on the risk profile of enrollees,” said Caroline Pearson, vice president at Avalere Health.

The federal government announced yesterday that 4.2 million individuals had enrolled in exchanges through February. By comparison, when the Medicare Part D program began in 2006, 22 percent of voluntary enrollees signed-up in the final month of coverage. If exchanges follow the same pattern, Avalere projects that 1.2M people would enroll in coverage in the month of March.

At the state level, exchange progress remains highly variable compared to state-specific enrollment projections for 2014. In both January and February, enrollment in federally run exchanges increased faster than enrollment in state-based exchanges, as federal exchanges recovered from early setbacks caused by Healthcare.gov. California, Florida, Idaho, North Carolina, and Washington lead the states in terms of enrollment, having enrolled more than the number of people expected to sign-up for exchange coverage in 2014. Meanwhile, the state-based exchanges of Hawaii, DC, and Massachusetts—each of which have struggled with website IT problems—trail the nation in enrollment relative to projections.

“In recent months, enrollment in federally run exchanges has caught-up to the initial enrollment surge in many state-based exchanges.  The federal marketplaces have been fixed and now surpass some states in terms of ease of consumer access, eligibility and functionality,” said Dan Mendelson, CEO of Avalere Health.

 

State

Projected 2014 Enrollment

Actual Enrollment as of February

Total Enrollment, As Percentage of Projected

Alabama

77,000

55,000

72%

Alaska

16,000

6,700

43%

Arizona

111,000

57,600

52%

Arkansas*

48,000

27,400

57%

California

642,000

868,900

135%

Colorado

86,000

83,500

97%

Connecticut

78,000

57,500

74%

Delaware

12,000

6,500

53%

District of Columbia

23,000

6,200

28%

Florida

421,000

442,100

105%

Georgia

180,000

139,400

77%

Hawaii

16,000

4,700

30%

Idaho

35,000

43,900

125%

Illinois

193,000

113,700

59%

Indiana

128,000

65,000

51%

Iowa*

43,000

15,300

36%

Kansas

55,000

29,300

54%

Kentucky

66,000

54,900

83%

Louisiana

98,000

45,600

47%

Maine

44,000

25,400

57%

Maryland

81,000

38,100

47%

Massachusetts

49,000

13,000

27%

Michigan

151,000

144,600

96%

Minnesota

76,000

32,000

42%

Mississippi

52,000

25,600

49%

Missouri

120,000

74,500

62%

Montana

23,000

22,500

97%

Nebraska

36,000

25,600

72%

Nevada

45,000

28,500

64%

New Hampshire

24,000

21,600

89%

New Jersey

186,000

74,400

40%

New Mexico

40,000

15,000

38%

New York

643,000

299,800

47%

North Carolina

198,000

200,500

101%

North Dakota

12,000

5,200

45%

Ohio

172,000

78,900

46%

Oklahoma

73,000

32,900

45%

Oregon

67,000

38,800

58%

Pennsylvania*

180,000

159,800

89%

Rhode Island

30,000

18,900

64%

South Carolina

96,000

55,800

58%

South Dakota

16,000

6,800

43%

Tennessee

115,000

77,900

68%

Texas

577,000

295,000

51%

Utah

61,000

39,900

65%

Vermont

27,000

24,300

91%

Virginia

135,000

102,800

 

 

News source: