New Avalere analysis finds that exchange enrollment is on track to reach 5.4 million by the end of March when open enrollment is set to end. That number falls short of current Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that six million people will enroll in exchanges in 2014.
“The Administration is conducting aggressive outreach in March in an effort to boost enrollment. However, success of exchanges in 2014 will depend less on the size of the market and more on the risk profile of enrollees,” said Caroline Pearson, vice president at Avalere Health.
The federal government announced yesterday that 4.2 million individuals had enrolled in exchanges through February. By comparison, when the Medicare Part D program began in 2006, 22 percent of voluntary enrollees signed-up in the final month of coverage. If exchanges follow the same pattern, Avalere projects that 1.2M people would enroll in coverage in the month of March.
At the state level, exchange progress remains highly variable compared to state-specific enrollment projections for 2014. In both January and February, enrollment in federally run exchanges increased faster than enrollment in state-based exchanges, as federal exchanges recovered from early setbacks caused by Healthcare.gov. California, Florida, Idaho, North Carolina, and Washington lead the states in terms of enrollment, having enrolled more than the number of people expected to sign-up for exchange coverage in 2014. Meanwhile, the state-based exchanges of Hawaii, DC, and Massachusetts—each of which have struggled with website IT problems—trail the nation in enrollment relative to projections.
“In recent months, enrollment in federally run exchanges has caught-up to the initial enrollment surge in many state-based exchanges. The federal marketplaces have been fixed and now surpass some states in terms of ease of consumer access, eligibility and functionality,” said Dan Mendelson, CEO of Avalere Health.
State
Projected 2014 Enrollment
Actual Enrollment as of February
Total Enrollment, As Percentage of Projected
Alabama
77,000
55,000
72%
Alaska
16,000
6,700
43%
Arizona
111,000
57,600
52%
Arkansas*
48,000
27,400
57%
California
642,000
868,900
135%
Colorado
86,000
83,500
97%
Connecticut
78,000
57,500
74%
Delaware
12,000
6,500
53%
District of Columbia
23,000
6,200
28%
Florida
421,000
442,100
105%
Georgia
180,000
139,400
77%
Hawaii
16,000
4,700
30%
Idaho
35,000
43,900
125%
Illinois
193,000
113,700
59%
Indiana
128,000
65,000
51%
Iowa*
43,000
15,300
36%
Kansas
55,000
29,300
54%
Kentucky
66,000
54,900
83%
Louisiana
98,000
45,600
47%
Maine
44,000
25,400
57%
Maryland
81,000
38,100
47%
Massachusetts
49,000
13,000
27%
Michigan
151,000
144,600
96%
Minnesota
76,000
32,000
42%
Mississippi
52,000
25,600
49%
Missouri
120,000
74,500
62%
Montana
23,000
22,500
97%
Nebraska
36,000
25,600
72%
Nevada
45,000
28,500
64%
New Hampshire
24,000
21,600
89%
New Jersey
186,000
74,400
40%
New Mexico
40,000
15,000
38%
New York
643,000
299,800
47%
North Carolina
198,000
200,500
101%
North Dakota
12,000
5,200
45%
Ohio
172,000
78,900
46%
Oklahoma
73,000
32,900
45%
Oregon
67,000
38,800
58%
Pennsylvania*
180,000
159,800
89%
Rhode Island
30,000
18,900
64%
South Carolina
96,000
55,800
58%
South Dakota
16,000
6,800
43%
Tennessee
115,000
77,900
68%
Texas
577,000
295,000
51%
Utah
61,000
39,900
65%
Vermont
27,000
24,300
91%
Virginia
135,000
102,800
