New Avalere analysis finds that while nationwide exchange enrollment has reached 55 percent of projections, state progress varies dramatically. In total, enrollment grew by 1.1 million in January, a 50 percent increase over 2013 year-end totals. In 15 states, enrollment exceeds 60 percent of those expected to enroll in 2014.
“The latest data show that exchange enrollment continues to rebound following early technological problems, although progress is uneven across states,” said Caroline Pearson, vice president at Avalere. “The question remains if the final enrollment surge at the end of March will make up the ground lost in October and November.”
Several states with state-based exchanges continue to lead the way in meeting enrollment expectations, including California and Washington. Meanwhile, state-based exchanges in Massachusetts, DC, and Hawaii continue to lag behind. Interestingly, enrollment in Oregon is average (52 percent), despite the delayed launch of their online webportal.
States using healthcare.gov infrastructure outpaced state-operated exchanges in January. Idaho and North Carolina lead the way among federally operated states, while Arkansas and Iowa have enrolled less than 20 percent and 30 percent, respectively.
State-Specific Findings
State
Projected 2014 Enrollment
Actual Enrollment
to Date
Total Enrollment, As Percentage of Projected
Alabama
73,433
43,900
60%
Alaska
15,013
5,100
34%
Arizona
106,779
43,500
41%
Arkansas
124,376
21,800
18%
California
614,542
728,100
118%
Colorado
82,166
69,600
85%
Connecticut
74,579
48,700
65%
Delaware
11,802
4,900
42%
District of Columbia
21,566
4,700
22%
Florida
403,520
296,900
74%
Georgia
172,873
101,300
59%
Hawaii
15,146
3,600
24%
Idaho
33,564
32,900
98%
Illinois
184,984
88,600
48%
Indiana
122,336
47,700
39%
Iowa
47,053
11,800
25%
Kansas
52,385
22,400
43%
Kentucky
63,067
48,600
77%
Louisiana
93,688
32,900
35%
Maine
42,530
20,500
48%
Maryland
77,598
29,100
38%
Massachusetts
46,953
8,100
17%
Michigan
144,700
112,000
77%
Minnesota
72,331
28,600
40%
Mississippi
49,938
17,400
35%
Missouri
115,126
54,200
47%
Montana
22,125
18,600
84%
Nebraska
34,169
20,400
60%
Nevada
42,750
22,600
53%
New Hampshire
23,272
16,900
73%
New Jersey
177,950
54,800
31%
New Mexico
38,054
11,600
30%
New York
616,023
241,200
39%
North Carolina
189,402
160,200
85%
North Dakota
11,180
4,100
37%
Ohio
164,691
60,100
36%
Oklahoma
70,041
24,700
35%
Oregon
64,551
33,800
52%
Pennsylvania
353,810
123,700
35%
Rhode Island
28,403
15,700
55%
South Carolina
91,731
41,300
45%
South Dakota
15,311
5,100
33%
Tennessee
110,452
59,700
54%
Texas
552,993
207,500
38%
Utah
45,759
29,400
64%
Vermont
25,480
19,600
77%
Virginia
129,097
74,200
57%
Washington
94,689
88,900
94%
West Virginia
26,664
8,000
30%
Wisconsin
198,564
56,400
28%
Wyoming
10,792
5,300
49%
Methodology
Avalere’s analysis incorporates the HHS enrollment figures released on February 12, 2014, as well as updated state-specific tracking from publically available resources. Projected enrollment is based on Avalere’s proprietary enrollment model. Enrollment targets have been reduced uniformly based on CBO’s updated projection that 6 million, instead of 7 million, people will enroll in exchanges in 2014.
February 12, 2014
