Avalere Analysis: State Exchange Enrollment Widely Variable

New Avalere analysis finds that while nationwide exchange enrollment has reached 55 percent of projections, state progress varies dramatically. In total, enrollment grew by 1.1 million in January, a 50 percent increase over 2013 year-end totals. In 15 states, enrollment exceeds 60 percent of those expected to enroll in 2014.

“The latest data show that exchange enrollment continues to rebound following early technological problems, although progress is uneven across states,” said Caroline Pearson, vice president at Avalere. “The question remains if the final enrollment surge at the end of March will make up the ground lost in October and November.”

Several states with state-based exchanges continue to lead the way in meeting enrollment expectations, including California and Washington. Meanwhile, state-based exchanges in Massachusetts, DC, and Hawaii continue to lag behind. Interestingly, enrollment in Oregon is average (52 percent), despite the delayed launch of their online webportal. 

States using healthcare.gov infrastructure outpaced state-operated exchanges in January. Idaho and North Carolina lead the way among federally operated states, while Arkansas and Iowa have enrolled less than 20 percent and 30 percent, respectively.

State-Specific Findings

State

Projected 2014 Enrollment

Actual Enrollment

to Date

Total Enrollment, As Percentage of Projected

Alabama

73,433

43,900

60%

Alaska

15,013

5,100

34%

Arizona

106,779

43,500

41%

Arkansas

124,376

21,800

18%

California

614,542

728,100

118%

Colorado

82,166

69,600

85%

Connecticut

74,579

48,700

65%

Delaware

11,802

4,900

42%

District of Columbia

21,566

4,700

22%

Florida

403,520

296,900

74%

Georgia

172,873

101,300

59%

Hawaii

15,146

3,600

24%

Idaho

33,564

32,900

98%

Illinois

184,984

88,600

48%

Indiana

122,336

47,700

39%

Iowa

47,053

11,800

25%

Kansas

52,385

22,400

43%

Kentucky

63,067

48,600

77%

Louisiana

93,688

32,900

35%

Maine

42,530

20,500

48%

Maryland

77,598

29,100

38%

Massachusetts

46,953

8,100

17%

Michigan

144,700

112,000

77%

Minnesota

72,331

28,600

40%

Mississippi

49,938

17,400

35%

Missouri

115,126

54,200

47%

Montana

22,125

18,600

84%

Nebraska

34,169

20,400

60%

Nevada

42,750

22,600

53%

New Hampshire

23,272

16,900

73%

New Jersey

177,950

54,800

31%

New Mexico

38,054

11,600

30%

New York

616,023

241,200

39%

North Carolina

189,402

160,200

85%

North Dakota

11,180

4,100

37%

Ohio

164,691

60,100

36%

Oklahoma

70,041

24,700

35%

Oregon

64,551

33,800

52%

Pennsylvania

353,810

123,700

35%

Rhode Island

28,403

15,700

55%

South Carolina

91,731

41,300

45%

South Dakota

15,311

5,100

33%

Tennessee

110,452

59,700

54%

Texas

552,993

207,500

38%

Utah

45,759

29,400

64%

Vermont

25,480

19,600

77%

Virginia

129,097

74,200

57%

Washington

94,689

88,900

94%

West Virginia

26,664

8,000

30%

Wisconsin

198,564

56,400

28%

Wyoming

10,792

5,300

49%

 

Methodology

Avalere’s analysis incorporates the HHS enrollment figures released on February 12, 2014, as well as updated state-specific tracking from publically available resources. Projected enrollment is based on Avalere’s proprietary enrollment model. Enrollment targets have been reduced uniformly based on CBO’s updated projection that 6 million, instead of 7 million, people will enroll in exchanges in 2014.

News source: